What is the difference between a projection and a confirmed count?
A projection estimates a future or incomplete-period outcome using assumptions; a confirmed count records events meeting a defined verification rule up to a stated cutoff.
What the figure or term means
The 17.4 million food-insecurity figure is a projection for a defined season.
Nine polio cases as of October 2025 was a confirmed surveillance count at that cutoff.
Both can change, but for different reasons.
Keep “projected,” “estimated,” “reported,” and “confirmed” exactly where the source uses them.
How to use this information responsibly
Good data use begins with the indicator definition, source, publication date, reference period, geographic coverage, denominator, and whether the figure is observed, estimated, projected, targeted, or reached.
A precise-looking number can still carry uncertainty. Responsible reporting preserves the source’s wording and does not convert projections into verified counts.
Check the underlying information.
Editorial standard: This page is reviewed by a person, sourced to Famidi records or authoritative references, and revised when the program or underlying guidance changes. It does not replace legal, tax, medical, or financial advice.